Hummer Forums by Elcova - Mortgage Times

Mortgage Market News for the week ending June 20, 2008

Events This Week:

Inflation Rose
Jobless Claims Up
Housing Starts Fell
Manufacturing Mixed

Events Next Week:

Wed 6/25
FOMC Meeting
Durable Orders
New Home Sales
Thurs 6/26
GDP
Existing Home Sales
Fri 6/27
Core PCE
Income

Mortgage Rates Turn Lower

After rising for the past four weeks, mortgage rates showed a nice decline this week. A number of factors combined to shift investor sentiment in favor of the mortgage market. Signs of a slowing economy suggested a reduction in inflationary pressure, which was good news for mortgage markets. In particular, the manufacturing reports showed declining levels of activity, and the housing data was lower. On the inflation front, the Core Producer Price Index (PPI) matched the consensus forecast, and oil prices held steady. In addition, continued credit concerns and global geopolitical unrest produced a flight to the relative safety of bonds instead of stocks, and the stock market suffered significant losses.

Economic weakness changed the outlook for Fed policy as well, setting the stage for next week's Fed meeting. In contrast to the nearly exclusive focus on fighting inflation expressed over the past four weeks, the Fed is now expected to assume a more balanced approach between promoting economic growth and restraining inflation. Investors don't anticipate any change in the Fed Funds rate at the next meeting, and they reduced their expectations for Fed rate hikes later in the year.

In the housing sector, May Housing Starts fell 3%. May Building Permits, a leading indicator of future activity, also declined. The President of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) suggested that home builders are "doing the right thing." A decline in the production of new homes will lower the supply of available homes, which is a key step in stabilizing the housing market. The NAHB also pushed for Congress to pass a housing stimulus package to boost demand.

Also Notable:
The June National Assoc. of Home Builders sentiment index fell slightly from May
China announced that government regulated fuel prices would rise
European inflation and interest rates reached the highest levels since early in the decade
The Fed's Lacker said that it makes sense for the Fed to reverse its rate cuts and raise short-term rates as the economy recovers

Average 30 yr fixed rate:
Last week:+0.30%
This week:-0.14%

Stocks (weekly):
Dow:11,935-342
NASDAQ:2,421-25

Week Ahead

Next week's main event will be Wednesday's Fed meeting. No change in rates is expected, but investors will be very eager to see what the Fed's statement will reveal. Also on Wednesday, Durable Orders and New Home Sales will be released. Existing Home Sales and the final revisions to first quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will come out on Thursday. The Fed's preferred inflation indicator, the Core PCE price index, is scheduled for Friday. Consumer Confidence, Personal Income, and Treasury Auctions will round out the Economic Calendar.

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