Commentary

[Adam in CO]

Tuesday?s bond market has opened in positive territory as yesterday?s buying seems to be carrying over to today. There was no relevant economic news scheduled for today, but early stock weakness is also contributing to this morning?s gains. The stock markets are showing losses with the Dow down 46 points and the Nasdaq down 3 points. The bond market is currently up 8/32, which will likely improve this morning?s mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point over yesterday?s morning rates.
There is no further important economic news scheduled for release until Thursday morning. Until then, expect the stock markets to heavily influence bond trading. With the major stock indexes on a recent rally, there is some expectation of a pullback. This could lead to shifting of funds back into bonds. However, if the rally seems to continue, bonds may suffer, leading to higher mortgage pricing.

The Commerce Department will post August?s Factory Orders data Thursday morning. This manufacturing sector report is similar to last week?s Durable Goods Orders release, but includes orders for non-durable goods. It can usually impact the financial markets enough to change mortgage rates if it varies from forecasts by a wide margin. Current forecasts are calling for a decline in new orders of approximately 2.8%. An unexpected rise could drive mortgage rates higher, while a weaker than expected reading should push them lower Thursday.

The Labor Department will post September?s Employment report early Friday morning. This report will reveal the U.S. unemployment rate, number of new payrolls added and average hourly earnings. These are considered to be very important readings of the employment sector and can have a huge impact on the financial markets. The ideal scenario for the bond market is rising unemployment, falling payrolls and a drop in earnings.

Weaker than expected readings should help boost bond prices and lower mortgage rates Friday. However, stronger then forecasted readings could be disastrous for mortgage pricing. Analysts are expecting to see a slight increase in the unemployment rate to bring it to 4.7%, an increase in new payrolls of approximately 100,000 and a 0.3% increase in earnings.