Opec in its death throws?

[Yetti]

http://blogs.moneycentral.msn.com/to...h-of-opec.aspx

The death of OPEC

Posted Sep 11 2008, 07:01 AM by Douglas McIntyre
Rating:

Saudi Arabia walked out on OPEC yesterday, saying it would not honor the cartel's production cut. It was tired of rants from Hugo Chavez of Venezuela and the well-dressed oil minister from Iran.
As the world's largest crude exporter, the kingdom in the desert took its ball and went home.
As the Saudis left the building, the message was shockingly clear. ?Saudi Arabia will meet the market?s demand,? a senior OPEC delegate told the New York Times. ?We will see what the market requires and we will not leave a customer without oil."
OPEC will still have lavish meetings and a nifty headquarters in Vienna, Austria, but the Saudis have made certain the the organization has lost its teeth. Even though the cartel argued that the sudden drop in crude was due to "oversupply", OPEC's most powerful member knows that the drop may only be temporary. Cold weather later this year could put pressure on prices. So could a decision by Russia that it wants to "punish" the U.S. and European Union for a time. That political battle is only at its beginning.
The downward pressure on oil got a second hand. Brazil has confirmed another huge oil deposit to add to one it discovered off-shore earlier this year. The first field uncovered by Petrobras has the promise of being one of the largest in the world. The breadth of that deposit has now expanded.
OPEC needs the Saudis to have any credibility in terms of pricing, supply, and the ongoing success of its bully pulpit. By failing to keep its most critical member, it forfeits its leverage.
OPEC has made no announcement about any possibility of dissolving, but the process is already over.


Just goes to figure how the world is supposed to end tommorow with the collider firing up and we just get the best news of the decade.

[RubHer Yellow Ducky]

Yetti,

As they say

"from your mouth to GODS Ears"

but

as T. Boone Pickens says, This is the biggest transfer of money in history!

and the world is to complicated every day...dealing with Russia, OPAC, Brasil, the EU, the Saudi's, the Middle East, Chavez, Obama,
the Pig with LipStick, the PitBull with LipStick, Bill Clinton, Mrs Bill Clinton, President McCain etc etc

All I can tell you is don't make any really large purchases for a few years, save your money, make sure your nest egg is secure,

cause we still got a rough ride ahead !!!

[mikejr]

Originally Posted by RubHer Yellow Ducky

Yetti,

As they say

"from your mouth to GODS Ears"

but

as T. Boone Pickens says, This is the biggest transfer of money in history!

and the world is to complicated every day...dealing with Russia, OPAC, Brasil, the EU, the Saudi's, the Middle East, Chavez, Obama,
the Pig with LipStick, the PitBull with LipStick, Bill Clinton, Mrs Bill Clinton, President McCain etc etc

All I can tell you is don't make any really large purchases for a few years, save your money, make sure your nest egg is secure,

cause we still got a rough ride ahead !!!

Unless of course the major purchase is a Hummer right? All kidding aside...I agree, we're in for a rough ride over the next....who knows how long.

[HUMMERcustoms.com/TAZ]

To many bad people still hold the largest amounts of oil reserve. Unless our gov. turns up our own drilling we will be at the worlds mercy as long as we have people in our gov. that wold like a one world gov., money and etc. Those people are still many and hold allot of power. If USA would rally around energy self support as a war the way we responded as a nation in all the world wars we have the brains, tech, and still to make a run and let the rest of the world figure out as Yamoto said to the Japanese leaders as WW2 started that he had seen the American might and will power. He said we have now awoken a sleeping giant and that the damage will occur when now we have this tiger by the tell how will we be able to turn loose without it devouring us. He said we cannot beat them but, best hope is to drag war out long enough to sue for a term of peace. What he understood and did not elaborate on to hid gov. was that because of how the surprise attacked occured, of which it was not to be at all, Yamoto knew they were doomed as America would not settle for anyhing but, total defeat of Japan.

Our nation still has this spirit in it if we can dig it back up after all the years of huge numbers of pacifist even socialist college teachers having had way to much influence on our future college leaders. Back in the day when our nation called on all especially Rosie the riviter to rise up and sacrifice all needed for complete victory on all fronts and all areas of life we still had so many people who remembered what The Great Depression was like. Now I hope we can just come to the plain old commom sense that there are far more of the world that would love to see the USA disappear as a nation as a whole so that this realation alone will come forth and spur all Americans to join in the one goal of our nations survival versus the choice that has been being spoon feed to Us that we would be better off subjigating our personal and national rights to those in the world who really have no idea what Our nation under God went through or why we left the old world to start up a nation to have individual rights that inturn worked together to ensure Our nation of it's permanent individualism idenity is what makes most of the world hate and more so envy the USA of what it is wishing they could be the same.

We have time and tech. if Pelosi will allow oue congress to step forward and end this moretoreum on drilling along with while using the drilling we adance at an accelorated rate our drive for complete and permanent energy independace which is what the Saudis do understand that in a short they could be back to a nomadic tribe of desert dwellers if they squeeze the spigots and enrage the USA to act at an even accelorated pace it will just speed their own financial doom. I hope that the placating of the oil market prices with pumping to force oil prices lower do not turn us back from a path that the Saudis know has been put in motion.

Oh well time will tell over around the next 4 years which way we go as a nation.

TAZ

[wpage]

Its really going to take a significant effort to get a energy policy going to break us from the problem we have gotten ourselves into with oil...

Conservation and alternate systems are the answer.

Having not soo greedy folks that dont hate us suppliers would help too.

[mdoyle]

I've been saying it for years- the price of gas has little to nothing to do with the supply.

For years it was assumed the demand for oil was inelastic meaning consumers needed it and couldn't do much to curtail their usage, that is wrong. The usage has dropped dramatically month after month and while we're talking small percentages, they represent a massive reduction in usage.

http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/s...1/daily41.html

The Liberals love so say, "any new drilling won't produce results for 25 years", what a bunch of BS! I'm here to tell you firsthand that the rig and platform projects I've worked on produce within months- not years.

Right now there are more drilling and exploration projects going on than ever and the oil companies are well funded (duh) and spending to expand their market share.

The price of gas will adjust to a tolerable threshold, probably around $3.50 a gallon where average Joe can afford it and the oil companies get theirs. Just don't fall for the BS line that releasing the strategic reserve or drilling in Alaska will lower the price- it has nothing to do with classic economics!

Last example- there is enough oil off Brazil's coast and it is already being tapped, here is a project I worked directly on and it's producing 2 million barrels a day (yes a day). Did the price of gas go down when it came on line in 2007? NO!

http://www2.petrobras.com.br/Petrobr...aforma_p54.htm

[ROX]

Originally Posted by RubHer Yellow Ducky

All I can tell you is don't make any really large purchases for a few years, save your money, make sure your nest egg is secure,

cause we still got a rough ride ahead !!!

[DRTYFN]

This will be over soon. Quick flushing. If Obama gets in it will be a looooong time until it's done.

[HUMMERcustoms.com/TAZ]

wpage
sometimes I just do not like to let it be known the business's I'm in. I really should not feel like that but, so many in Our nation have caused me to feel villafied then some of it comes from years of being married to an X that I found out later was ashamed to tell people her husband was a farmer. I was not a barn and few pigs but, 1000's and 1000's of acres of rice, soybeans, wheat, cotton, and so on. I just thought it was to hard of a way to make a living but, felt it honorable and honest. She never complained when she and daughters got new vehicles each year, gas cards, and X especially had an allowance of $500 a month to spend however she wanted plus keep whatever money she made. The only reason I do not lament or regret the fact that I did not find a good Christian young lady deserving of a good life and (which is what I thought X was) that deserved to have someone who cared enough to work harder to provide as much and as joyfull life as I was able to give her. My 2 girls and grandson are what made it worth it when all is said and done. I just mention this because your statement about not being hated by people who get supplied by us struck a note with me. I just have a certain amount of caution about oil and gas business as far as what anyone in the little pond I live in know about what I do. I'm just a small fry in this ocean but, have some concern about leaf licking tree hugging terrorist constantly harming those I love because as far as I'm concerned I could sit out 600 yards for days with my Ruger 300 winchester mag and wait for a return visit. I'm just bound by concern for kids because the people in this country that would do harm to my loved ones and Our nation are combatants and deserve to be treated as such since they have chosen the path they did which is to cause damage and physical harm not just protest. They are proud to cause Us all the damage and heartache they will be allowed to get away with. Now I must say as I feel like most in this group would fight and die for our kids rights to do this free speech thing. Mine know I feel they would also deserve the same guidelines and justice as I would impose on myself or those of my own bloodline that would take the path of terrorism and damage. You can yell allot of things in a crowed theater except, fire. Free speech as the song says is not free it has been, right or wrong, based on someones view and willingness to lay down their life to keep that priviledge not a right. To many have taken it for granted so long that it has really been forgotten that it is a priviledge to speak freely paid for by the father, mother, child or just a stranger they never put a face to them who died and are buried in some foreign strange land so we can remain the home of the free and land of the brave.

mdoyle
You are correct about the price of gas being what people are willing to pay. Also there is the thought that the higher the price less used and greenies just hold parties to celebrate each new floor put under gas prices. Many are to young to remember the false oil shortage in 70's and $1 a gallon price jump from .15 a gallon moving from late 60's to early 70's. I remember thinking I have to sell my 68 Mustang coupe with a 289 hi-po engine that arrived in a crate 1 of last 2 complete engines left when Gapp/Rousch was still with Ford. It had a bullet proof T10 toploader and 4:56 gears. I had to chain the engine down on driver side so it would let it torque just to the point before ripping motor mounts because I was concerned if mounts broke the engine would roll over upside down in engine compartment. I thought my world had come to an end because I lived to race for pink slips saving for college and playing football in high school. Most of you are to young to remember the Chicago Bears and superbowl champs with refrigerator Perry and monster D lineman Dan Hampton. I played football with Dan in high school and he played for AR Razorbacks where he began his D Line career because in high school he started football for first time in junior year as my right O Line tackle. mdoyle 2 things occured at that time to put the buck floor under gas 1) President and cabinet made comment shortly after he was elected that we need to get gas to $1 which it did happen and 2) the shortage of oil was so bad (sarcasticly) that oil tankers were lashed together out in the gulf loaded full of oil with refineries shutting down with nothing to process that was on land that is. Allot of this escaped most of the young in the USA but, our own gov. decided to dictate what Americans would pay at pump. mdoyle I work with a guy who has drilled 2500 wells for Haliburton and we moved back into a part of USA that drilling and pumping stopped in late 1800's to early 1900's. They are small produces 200 barrels a day but, point I'm looking at is the big engine about 1 mile down has refilled much as a water aquifer refills if you only pump out only as fast as formation will flow to the pump jack and may pump forever who knows. No one believed us when we wanted to lease all the mineral rights we could get. There are 1000's and 1000's of these leases all of USA but, it took us finding a guy who can look at geologicals and look up old log books to see that when they started pumping on the wells new they ran pumps as fast as they could which is amazing that more of the zones had not collapsed by pulling oil out to fast which in turn is removing the support of the zone formation which if it happened we have to frak the hole to open up veins so oil and natural gas can flow more freely then just pump starting slowly to determine what safe daily production can be. I wanted to point out info I have that verifies what you are saying about gas price. I also try and help others and mainly the forum Buds understand that we have plenty of time considering our tech. ability to develop new energy sources without putting present energy production under stress while we perfect say Hydrogen fuel, CNG, and so on.

ROX
There are some streamling of option futures that may occur but, not likely to much to be done. Most all grains have had option futures being traded back since mid 80's. The same goes for meat like pork bellies. Gold and silver has been traded with option futures. You can set up an account with a broker and trade the futures. There are so many more most of us have not even known about them.

Now ROX this is where things get messy and what will make it hard to regulate because the company you use to make your trades for you. Each commodity has a minimal number of units you have to buy. The use of option was designed to cover risk say for instance a farmer grows soybeans. He can estimate the bushels he will produce and if he is a chart watcher he will see a pattern on when the bean will normally makes it's high price as well as low price. You can use either a sell or buy option which is either going short the market or long the market. Used properly they are great tools to limit your risk. You can even hedge home heating oil or if you use enough fuel lower your risk to cost of fuel by your trucking fleet.
If you use the futures as law is setup you will basicly be buying price insurance. The problem arrises when you move from protecting yourself to speculating using future options. In the regular use of future options if you do not own anymore contracts than what you in good faith know you produce you are able to right off the cost of the options in full just like any other ins. premium. If you hedge honestly and the futures position improves the price you get you do not pay capital gains but, it is taxed at your normal income rate. It is each persons responsibility to setup their account as a hedge acc. and not a speculative acc.
Question is how do you better regulate the options trading as it is sort of a good faith policing right now. The brokerage firm has you fill out all the documents setting up as what you will use the acc. for. If vit is for soybeans I think if I remember correctly the unit vis 5000 bushels. To be a true hedge acc. you have to be able to deliver actual product if the guy on the other end decides he wants that product. What normally happens though is the option futures are sold or bought before you would have to deliver the product. Now in an extreme situation you could get caught not being able to lay off your long or short position and the dude sends you notice that h wants to take delivery of the product and there are only certain places that can handle delivery of the product so then not only are you having to deliver the product but, pay for the trucking cost to get it there. ROX I have sort of given you extreme scenarios but, it boils down to the fact are you hedging or speculating which determines how you are taxed. Because the option trade is a legal business dealing the next thing is you would have to look at who was envolved and what does the paperwork say that your broker has in his file. To not be in trouble you better be using th acc. as it was setup for. If it is not that is when the SEC can come and cause you allot of grief. ROX I'm sorry I kind of gave this topic a shotgun blast but, it is 9am Sat. and I have not been able to go to sleep yet. I have gone this far so I'm trying to go ahead and stay up to watch my beloved Arkansas Razorbacks plan Alabama at 11:30am. If something comes to mind send me a question and I will see if I can pull an answer out of one of those rusty files in my head.

I'm sorry for being long in this whole thing but, there were some interesting topics that I knew a little about a whole lot but, not a whole lot about very many. Besides hey it's TAZ what could you have expected anyway.

TAZ