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10-31-2005, 02:52 AM
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Hummer Messiah
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Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: ENRAGEMENT FOR HIRE
Posts: 31,286
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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by HammerH2:
I have no doubt from watching the videos, rumors, and pictures your group is fealess and borderline retarded.  </div></BLOCKQUOTE>
And we're also damn goodlooking people.
I would love to play follow the leader with Liveordie.
"ELP! I'M BOBBING"
__________________
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My advice to you is get married: if you find a good wife you'll be happy; if not, you'll become a philosopher.
My Video Collectionez
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10-31-2005, 02:55 AM
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Hummer Messiah
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Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: PDX
Posts: 2,367,817
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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by DennisAJC:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by HammerH2:
I have no doubt from watching the videos, rumors, and pictures your group is fealess and borderline retarded. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>
And we're also damn goodlooking people.
I would love to play follow the leader with Liveordie.
"ELP! I'M BOBBING" </div></BLOCKQUOTE>
Damn, I love this clip!!!
Alp.... ahm bobbing... |
10-31-2005, 03:42 AM
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Hummer Professional
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Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Houston, Texas
Posts: 398
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Paragon-
To address a few of your commments...
The price at the pump "is" raised due to the fear of future "production" disruption "because" future production disruption affects futures pricing which ultimately affects retail pump prices. Keep in mind, pricing at the pump originated on the Nymex where heating oil and unleaded gas futures trade. Refineries contract to buy their crude supplies with their purchase price tied to either the daily Nymex settle plus a fixed basis or a daily fixed price basis cash market, in turn, retail gas stations contract out to either petroleum distributors or directly with refineries and this price is tied to the current spot rack price.
World supply/demand balances "have" tightened significantly in the past four years due to the unbelieveable economic growth in China and India in 03/04.
OPEC is no longer a factor when discussing the ability to manipulate pricing. We ran from $41 to $72 this year. The last $15 of that move was driven purely off of trading technicals which continued to give these program and hedge fund traders "BUY" signals. It wasn't driven off of OPEC, supply/demand balances, the oil majors, etc...
Diesel prices at the pump have come off where I'm at however there continues to be a 60 cent/gallon spread at the pump between diesel and unleaded. However, there is also a 22 cent/gallon spread between heating oil and unleaded gas futures. The balance of that pricing is due to cash diesel basis prices, issues with transportation logistics, continued downed refineries, current distillate storage levels, and maybe a little "major" price gouging.
And to try to correlate price action and demand, and argue that price has no business increasing 100% since demand hasn't increased by 100% is a difficult correlation for me to follow. Price always overshoots to both the upside or the downside because it's never readily apparent when supply/demand fundamentals have fallen back in-line. Plus, in the interim there are so many other factors other than global and local supply/demand balances that traders look at when trading...
Ultimately, I agree with your assessment that there is some market manipulation being done by the majors which affects pricing, however, I can't agree with you that this is the sole reason for the price action we have seen this year. The various factors I have mentioned in previous posts do play an influence on price.
However, I am a believer in free markets and capitalism and do not believe it is wise to try and cap the majors or have them fix their pricing. Immediate relief would be offset by long term grief...
__________________
-HUMMERDOGG
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10-31-2005, 12:07 PM
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Banned
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Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 24,247
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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by HUMMERDOGG:
Paragon-
To address a few of your commments...
The price at the pump "is" raised due to the fear of future "production" disruption "because" future production disruption affects futures pricing which ultimately affects retail pump prices. Keep in mind, pricing at the pump originated on the Nymex where heating oil and unleaded gas futures trade. Refineries contract to buy their crude supplies with their purchase price tied to either the daily Nymex settle plus a fixed basis or a daily fixed price basis cash market, in turn, retail gas stations contract out to either petroleum distributors or directly with refineries and this price is tied to the current spot rack price.
World supply/demand balances "have" tightened significantly in the past four years due to the unbelieveable economic growth in China and India in 03/04.
OPEC is no longer a factor when discussing the ability to manipulate pricing. We ran from $41 to $72 this year. The last $15 of that move was driven purely off of trading technicals which continued to give these program and hedge fund traders "BUY" signals. It wasn't driven off of OPEC, supply/demand balances, the oil majors, etc...
Diesel prices at the pump have come off where I'm at however there continues to be a 60 cent/gallon spread at the pump between diesel and unleaded. However, there is also a 22 cent/gallon spread between heating oil and unleaded gas futures. The balance of that pricing is due to cash diesel basis prices, issues with transportation logistics, continued downed refineries, current distillate storage levels, and maybe a little "major" price gouging.
And to try to correlate price action and demand, and argue that price has no business increasing 100% since demand hasn't increased by 100% is a difficult correlation for me to follow. Price always overshoots to both the upside or the downside because it's never readily apparent when supply/demand fundamentals have fallen back in-line. Plus, in the interim there are so many other factors other than global and local supply/demand balances that traders look at when trading...
Ultimately, I agree with your assessment that there is some market manipulation being done by the majors which affects pricing, however, I can't agree with you that this is the sole reason for the price action we have seen this year. The various factors I have mentioned in previous posts do play an influence on price.
However, I am a believer in free markets and capitalism and do not believe it is wise to try and cap the majors or have them fix their pricing. Immediate relief would be offset by long term grief... </div></BLOCKQUOTE>We're on the exact same page. I am not obtuse enough to think that retail pricing is only set by some sort of conspiracy. While everything I've posted here is fact, I could help but play with the village idiot attempting to discuss something over his head.
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10-31-2005, 12:55 PM
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Hummer Expert
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Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: PA
Posts: 515
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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by FreeorDie2:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by ckhagman:
]
I would like to know what Exxon/Mobils ROI was on this 9.9 billion. i.e. if last years was 2% and this years was 2% then who really cares. But if this hear was significantly higher like 6% or more than it is a problem. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>
Why is it a problem? Who are you, or who is anybody, to say how much profit a company should make? How much money do you make? How much of a pay raise did you get this year? Last year? Does anyone but your employer have a right to say if it's too much or too little?
How much money did you risk over the last X years to make sure gas gets to market? I'll bet that if you were heavily invested in XOM, you'd be singin' a different damn song. . . </div></BLOCKQUOTE>
I believe you missed my point entirely. I was merely saying, if they made the same % profit then them making 9.9billion is no big deal. I do not complain about the petroleum industry. |
10-31-2005, 12:59 PM
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Hummer Professional
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Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Dallas
Posts: 406
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OK, this thread is too damn long, so let's sum it up.
It's OK for an oil company to make billions of dollars because on a percentage basis, it's equal with other companies and should be allowed to make a fair profit off their large investments.
The oil industry is a screwed up industry with a lot of B.S. controlling prices that are not directly related to supply and demand.
There I think we covered both sides.
Oil companies are allowed to make large profits, and oil companies suck.
Now lets MOVE ON PEOPLE.
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10-31-2005, 01:01 PM
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Banned
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Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 24,247
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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by Hummertech:
OK, this thread is too damn long, so let's sum it up.
It's OK for an oil company to make billions of dollars because on a percentage basis, it's equal with other companies and should be allowed to make a fair profit off their large investments.
The oil industry is a screwed up industry with a lot of B.S. controlling prices that are not directly related to supply and demand.
There I think we covered both sides.
Oil companies are allowed to make large profits, and oil companies suck.
Now lets MOVE ON PEOPLE. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>Shut up and go fix a Hummer.  And yes you pretty much summed it up. |
10-31-2005, 01:02 PM
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Hummer Expert
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Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: PA
Posts: 515
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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by CslRkH2:
Collusion...I know it will never be investigated or proven. But I'm surprised that you find it such a stretch. And No, in the 70s there actually were fuel shortages. Thus the supply side of the equation caused prices to increase. In the past couple months supply and demand has been constant (other than a few specific areas). From the financial stmts there doesn't seem to be any reason for these latest price spikes other than pure greed. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>
There was never a fuel shortage in the 70's. If you call all tanks at an oil refiner fuel of refined gas a shortage than that is really interesting.
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10-31-2005, 01:05 PM
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Banned
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Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 24,247
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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by ckhagman:
I do not complain about the petroleum industry. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>You won't bite the hand that feeds you? |
10-31-2005, 01:09 PM
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Hummer Expert
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Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: PA
Posts: 515
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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by HUMMERDOGG:
The thing is, we have the technology nowadays to help alleviate alot of this but it is just taking time to get production from this new technology brought online. Coal Gasification Technology for Natural Gas, Canadian Tar Sands for Crude Oil, LNG imports for Natural Gas, etc...
</div></BLOCKQUOTE>
We can use Coal Gasification to make diesel fuel also.
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10-31-2005, 01:14 PM
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Hummer Expert
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Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: PA
Posts: 515
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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by PARAGON:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by HUMMERDOGG:
Price is merely a reflection of supply/demand balances regardless what anyone says. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>Dogg, respectfully this is simply not true. When the price at the pump can be raised due to the fear of future "production" disruption, this is not being controlled by supply/demand.
</div></BLOCKQUOTE>
Is Exxon/Mobile or any oil company that ones raising the prices at the individual stations. Do you really think BP were the ones that raised prices to $6.00 a gallon. Just because it has a major oil sign out front it doesn't mean that that major oil sets the price. |
10-31-2005, 01:22 PM
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Banned
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Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 24,247
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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by ckhagman:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by PARAGON:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by HUMMERDOGG:
Price is merely a reflection of supply/demand balances regardless what anyone says. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>Dogg, respectfully this is simply not true. When the price at the pump can be raised due to the fear of future "production" disruption, this is not being controlled by supply/demand.
</div></BLOCKQUOTE>
Is Exxon/Mobile or any oil company that ones raising the prices at the individual stations. Do you really think BP were the ones that raised prices to $6.00 a gallon. Just because it has a major oil sign out front it doesn't mean that that major oil sets the price. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>Awww, damn. We aren't going to continue this are we?
Look it up, the major oil companies have tons of company owned stores whose prices are set by the company. Competing stores generally fall in line to reap the same profits.
It really is a simple concept. Why else do you think an area's fuel prices can increase by $0.10 in a days time.
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10-31-2005, 01:23 PM
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Hummer Expert
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Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: PA
Posts: 515
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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by FreeorDie2:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by PARAGON:
First it doesn't address the price at the pump at all and secondly, I think you must be above your pay grade here. "wins the argument." Is that what you are trying to do?  </div></BLOCKQUOTE>
And when you say that everything previously written doesn't address the price at the pump, you are not making any sense. Do you know what goes into the price at the pump? Everything involved in recovering, refining and distributing gasoline down to and including the salaries of those work at the gas station. And I'm not sure if it was you or someone else who mentioned it, but gas stations do indeed have to price gas based on the next tanker load, not the one just delivered. If a tanker load costs $10K and is priced at the pump so that all overhead is paid with $10K left over to buy the next load and it costs $11K, the station owner is going to be in the hole.
</div></BLOCKQUOTE>
It was me. And damn if you are not right on with that. I guess Paragon didn't read that post. |
10-31-2005, 01:31 PM
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Banned
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Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 24,247
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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by ckhagman:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by FreeorDie2:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by PARAGON:
First it doesn't address the price at the pump at all and secondly, I think you must be above your pay grade here. "wins the argument." Is that what you are trying to do? </div></BLOCKQUOTE>
And when you say that everything previously written doesn't address the price at the pump, you are not making any sense. Do you know what goes into the price at the pump? Everything involved in recovering, refining and distributing gasoline down to and including the salaries of those work at the gas station. And I'm not sure if it was you or someone else who mentioned it, but gas stations do indeed have to price gas based on the next tanker load, not the one just delivered. If a tanker load costs $10K and is priced at the pump so that all overhead is paid with $10K left over to buy the next load and it costs $11K, the station owner is going to be in the hole.
</div></BLOCKQUOTE>
It was me. And damn if you are not right on with that. I guess Paragon didn't read that post. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>You have to be f'ing kiddng me. You are going to continue with this line of stupid crap. You seriously think that the price paid at the pump is simply controled by the wholesale price paid for what is in the storage tank? WAKE UP!!!!
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10-31-2005, 01:36 PM
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Hummer Professional
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Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Dallas
Posts: 406
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Don't worry Paragon, everyone takes what he says with a grain of salt, simply because he lives in a state that has voted Democratic in the last 2 Elections.
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10-31-2005, 01:37 PM
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Hummer Professional
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Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Dallas
Posts: 406
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After all, if we're going to continue this damn thread any longer, let's at least change the subject and start arguing about something else.
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10-31-2005, 01:37 PM
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Hummer Expert
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Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: PA
Posts: 515
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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by PARAGON:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by ckhagman:
I do not complain about the petroleum industry. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>You won't bite the hand that feeds you? </div></BLOCKQUOTE>
Absolutely 100% correct. |
10-31-2005, 01:39 PM
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Hummer Expert
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Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: PA
Posts: 515
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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by PARAGON:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by ckhagman:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by FreeorDie2:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by PARAGON:
First it doesn't address the price at the pump at all and secondly, I think you must be above your pay grade here. "wins the argument." Is that what you are trying to do? </div></BLOCKQUOTE>
And when you say that everything previously written doesn't address the price at the pump, you are not making any sense. Do you know what goes into the price at the pump? Everything involved in recovering, refining and distributing gasoline down to and including the salaries of those work at the gas station. And I'm not sure if it was you or someone else who mentioned it, but gas stations do indeed have to price gas based on the next tanker load, not the one just delivered. If a tanker load costs $10K and is priced at the pump so that all overhead is paid with $10K left over to buy the next load and it costs $11K, the station owner is going to be in the hole.
</div></BLOCKQUOTE>
It was me. And damn if you are not right on with that. I guess Paragon didn't read that post. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>You have to be f'ing kiddng me. You are going to continue with this line of stupid crap. You seriously think that the price paid at the pump is simply controled by the wholesale price paid for what is in the storage tank? WAKE UP!!!! </div></BLOCKQUOTE>
No not entirely but it has a lot to do with it.
And this topic is too long and I was just catching up since I didn't turn my computer on the whole weekend. |
10-31-2005, 01:39 PM
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Banned
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Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 24,247
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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by Hummertech:
Don't worry Paragon, everyone takes what he says with a grain of salt, simply because he lives in a state that has voted Democratic in the last 2 Elections. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>Actually, I think he owns a gas station in some po-dunk town in a far-away corner who doesn't even have self-pay pumps outside. That's about the only explanation that could be had for this ignorant line of thinking.
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