Global Warming is Obviously Real...

[f5fstop]

Here's one predicition:
As core-heat comes closer to the surface, it is accompanied by volcanism, which has increased in extent and intensity over the past 2?, million years, causing a series of iceages. About the year 2100, Earth will enter upon the final iceage and, fortunately, it will be a minor one. The gradually increasing surface heat-flux, from the core-explosion, will lessen the severity and duration of the coming cool period. The pattern of future global mean temperatures will be as follows:

Year - A.D. Global Mean Temperature - Degrees Celsius


2,000 14.5
3,000 12.0 mini-iceage begins
4,000 11.0 "
5,000 10.0 "
6,000 10.0 "
7,000 10.0 "
8,000 10.0 "
10,000 11.0 "
12,000 12.0 mini-iceage ends
14,000 14.0
16,000 16.0
18,000 18.0
20,000 21.0
30,000 28.0
40,000 35.0
50,000 41.0
60,000 47.0


The El Ni?o/La Ni?a climatic regime, due to volcanism, will result in a steady increase of land-waters and cloud-cover ... which will raise the planetary albedo and lower the global mean temperature. Also, ice-melt waters (from northern ice-sheets) will surface-flood the North Atlantic, reducing evaporation and triggering the onset of the mini-iceage.

Once the global cooling trend is under way, the build-up of land-waters and ice will bring about a reduction of ocean levels ... and, by 5,000AD, these levels will be 20 metres lower than at present. However, by 20,000AD, when the global mean temperature has risen to 21 degrees Celsius, virtually all ice will have melted and ocean-levels will be 100 metres higher than at present. Then the great evaporation starts and, by 200,000AD, all water will be gone from the surface.

I won't be around to find out if he is right....

[31_bandits]

somebody needs to sit down and collect all of the climate-future theories into one website, categorize them, and let all the world surf.

i wonder how long that would take and what some college meteorology students would charge to do it?

[Aubs]

I'll see what I can find. Fstop's post is probably inaccurate. Volcanism is decreasing as the Earth cools, which has been happening since it formed. There will be no upswing.

[DRTYFN]

Originally Posted by Aubs

Volcanism is decreasing as the Earth cools, which has been happening since it formed. There will be no upswing.

Cools??? What cools? The surface? The sub surface? The Earth's core? Upper atmosphere? And how do you know there won't be an upswing? And what time frame are you comparing your upswing to?

[f5fstop]

Originally Posted by Aubs

I'll see what I can find. Fstop's post is probably inaccurate. Volcanism is decreasing as the Earth cools, which has been happening since it formed. There will be no upswing.

Who knows, this is a prediction into the future to the year 20,000 AD. However, if you look, it coincides with what the scientist on Fox News said, "that as the temps increase, cloud cover increases, and then temps drops."

I wonder if there will be any Hummers in 20,000 AD?

[Aubs]

I was in a hurry when I posted that.

The Earth as a whole, meaning the physical planet, along with the atmosphere, has been cooling since it's formation 4.6 billion years ago. Volcanism has been decreasing. There has been residual heat escaping form the entirety of the actual planet. This has been slowed slightly by the decay of radioactive minerals which provide some heat, and slow contraction of the planet by gravity. But eventually, the Earth will be just like most of the other planets in our solar system, cold and devoid of any self-created geological activity. The Moon still has quakes, but they are from gravitational forces.

18,000 years from now is hardly a flash in the pan of the geologic time scale. I do not know of any predicted hot periods in the future, until the eventual demise of the planet when the sun ultimately burns out. That will consume all of the inner planets. Unless more heat is created by contraction, radioactive decay (which is steady), or outside forces (ie, collision), there logically can be no increase in the earth's subsurface temperatures. What the temperature is today under our feet is a result of the forces that created the planet a long time ago.

As far as "core heat" that is already reaching us. There are no "core explosions" or some such nonsense. There were flood basalts in the past which created things like the Deccan Traps in India, and the Columbia River Basalts in Washington. They were massive outpourings of basalt, and still considered by some geologists to have been the cause or contributing factors to past Mass Extinctions, since their timing coencides closely with ME events. There were also kimberlites in the past, which were explosions of subsurface materials. They are responsible for the diamond deposits in Africa and Canada, but were not ME events by any means, though would pretty effectively destroy your home town.

A massive cooling event in the future could come from a number of sources, and is probably far more likely than extreme high temperatures. I only really know geology, so my example:
A caldera eruption would decrease global temps signifcantly (think Yellowstone caldera, also Long Valley caldera in CA). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_Valley_Caldera Long Valley or Yellowstone would spell the end of the US as we know it. But if you look at the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991, it ejected 10 cubic KM of ash. In comparison, the last eruption at Long Valley produced 600 cubic KM of ash. So what? Mount Pinatubo lowered global temps by about 1F. So any sort of eruption on that scale would be extremely bad, and would pose a significant threat to our survival. I think an event like this is more likely that we like to believe, though we have no data on when another one might occur, if ever. But there is always activity in these calderas, upwellings, and gas being vented...

[Aubs]

In reference to the last Fstop post:

The Earth is essentially a system that will respond to certain factors. So if cloud cover increases, will temperatures drop from reflection, or will they increase due to absorbtion? I am not a climatologist, and I cannot give you the answer to that one. But as certain factors change, they force others to move along with them. So if you cool the planet, and snow fall increases in area, then albedo will increase, and the sun's energy will be more readily reflected. In the same sense, if you heat the planet, there will be less snow cover, more vegetation and more absorbtion of sun energy. As the planet continues to warm however, and certain areas perhaps dry out and lose vegetation or become desert, the albedo will increase again... It should be evident by now that climate studies are:
1. Highly hypothetical
2. Depend on innumerous factors
3. Are highly prone to long term inaccuracy due to #2.

Albedo: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albedo

I know that in the history of the planet, there were events which possibly led to the entire planet becoming a giant snowball http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snowball_earth.
However, an event like this is considered impossible today due to the alignment of the continents relative to the equator.

[KenP]

So the ice is thinning in one area. Did the report mention how much the ice is thickening in other areas. Noooooooo...... Imagine that.