World Oil Balance Charts

[MDimitri]

I totally agree with George in relation to market manipulation. I am also glad to see that the following is ocurring:

"The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is investigating whether speculative buying is influencing oil prices, and whether outright market manipulation is taking place. Last week, it signed an agreement with the UK's Financial Services Authority to share information about trading on electronic exchanges based in London."

Here is the link to the article:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/bu...es-839692.html

All I can say is as long as inflation is kept in check we won't feel the damage that high oil prices are doing like they did in 73-74 when inflation in some countries was as high as 26%.

[ROX]

I was told, in April, that paper trades were ~3000 times higher than actual product being delivered, and that investors that normally buy the dollar, are instead buying oil futures. Hopefully, the trend will end.

It's good to see this discussion taking place.

Good info!

[MDimitri]

Here is a scarey thought, what if those investors are insurance companies or pension funds? if they bought in at this time under the assumption that prices will go much higher they better get out while they can! Or you and I will be paying for their losses for the next several years.

Like a bad dream, I'm trying to wake up but I can't...

[MDimitri]

LONG TERM WORLD OIL SUPPLY:

Alot was taken into consideration when this was written but I don't think enough was focused on alternative energy resources and the advancement of FUEL CELL technology within the next 5 years and how it will apply to vehicles and overall global transportaion. Another thing not taken into consideration is the increase in Nuclear Energy as an alternative to coal/oil burning power plants, a new item on the table, especially here in Alberta is the talk of a Fussion Reactor. If any of you know what fussion is then you'll know that this is equivilent in temperature as the surface of the sun. Once this type of reactor is started all you need to do to keep it burning is feed it garbage. Face it folks burning garbage and non recyclable materials under fussion temperature's vaporizes anything thrown into it, including engine blocks. This is a very good alternative to recylcing those certain items that use up more energy in the recycling process as opposed to the manufacturing process.

Here is a link to this article

http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/p...lsupply04.html

What it all boils down to is this:

The bottom line

Will the world ever physically run out of crude oil?No, but only because it will eventually become very expensive in absence of lower-cost alternatives. When will worldwide production of conventionally reservoired crude oil peak? That will in part depend on the rate of demand growth, which is subject to reduction via both technological advancements in petroleum product usage such as hybrid-powered automobiles and the substitution of new energy source technologies such as hydrogen-fed fuel cells where the hydrogen is obtained, for example, from natural gas, other hydrogen-rich organic compounds, or electrolysis of water. It will also depend in part on the rate at which technological advancement, operating in concert with world oil market economics, accelerates large-scale development of unconventional sources of crude such as tar sands and very heavy oils. Production from some of the Canadian tar sands and Venezuelan heavy oil deposits is already economic and growing.

In any event, the world production peak for conventionally reservoired crude is unlikely to be "right around the corner" as so many other estimators have been predicting. Our analysis shows that it will be closer to the middle of the 21st century than to its beginning. Given the long lead times required for significant mass-market penetration of new energy technologies, this result in no way justifies complacency about both supply-side and demand-side research and development.

Cheers !

[Big Dad]

You guys should checkout this site to get another aspect of the industry:

http://www.api.org/

But then again, I'm partial to it.

[KenP]

Here you go!

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/...peculation.php

A single energy conglomerate held 11 percent of all contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange at one point last month, according to a published report Thursday, suggesting that speculators may have played a larger part in volatile oil markets than once thought.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission made an unusual request last month for data from Vitol Group, a private Swiss energy company that regulators thought was helping industrial firms get the oil they needed, according to The Washington Post.

The commission discovered, however, that the Vitol would be better described as a speculator, trading oil contracts to turn profits rather than assisting companies that actually needed oil delivered for their operations

"It is now evident that speculators in the energy futures markets play a much larger role than previously thought, and it is now even harder to accept the agency's laughable assertion that excessive speculation has not contributed to rising energy prices," said Rep. John Dingell, a Michigan Democrat.

The commission investigation showed Vitol was one of the most active traders of oil on Nymex as prices reached record levels.

By June 6, Vitol had amassed contracts equal to 57.7 million barrels of oil, about three times the amount the United States consumes daily. On that day, the price for a barrel of oil spiked $11 to settle at $138.54, per barrel, valuing Vitol's oil holding at nearly $8 billion.

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Bring back Rockafella and the old fashioned robber barons...

They had bigger hearts then these modern greedy bastids